Two CMS high schools honored for perfect graduation rates

Today was the big graduation rate celebration up in Raleigh, and two high schools in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools were honored for having a 100 percent graduation rate last year.

Cato Middle College High and The Military and Global Leadership Academy at Marie G. Davis each had perfect graduation rates this year. To be sure, both are among the district's smallest high schools. Cato had 95 students in its graduating class, and Marie G. Davis had just 20.

But it still marks a significant achievement. Cato Middle College was the largest high school graduating class in the state to have a perfect rate, according to tables provided by the state Department of Public Instruction.

Two other CMS high schools were recognized for high graduation rates, as well.

Ardrey Kell High, with 559 students graduating, had a 97.7 percent rate. Providence High, with a 488-student class, had a 97.3 percent graduation rate.

All received plaques at a luncheon today in Durham.

The CMS graduation rate was 85.2 percent, outpacing the state for the first time in years.

Steps forward and back in high school graduation rates

CMS celebrated its increasing graduation rate this week. It hit a new high at 85.2 percent, edging out the state of North Carolina as a whole and Wake County.

It wasn't until the next day that the school-by-school numbers came out, and as you'd expect there's both good news and not-as-good news.

• Hawthorne High near uptown Charlotte had the biggest leap in graduation rate, to 90.6 percent from 65.9 percent the year before. The school is a bit of an unusual case, though. For years, Hawthorne was an alternative school. CMS decided last year to turn it into a medical science academy magnet school, and brought in some new students this year in that program. The graduating classes each year are also exceedingly small: only 29 students this year.

• Lincoln Heights Academy posted the lowest graduation rate at 66.7 percent. It's a school designed for students with behavioral issues. You can't compare this year's rate with past performance, however. The school was formerly known as Lincoln Heights Elementary, and only re-opened with high school students in 2011. That means a full class of seniors hadn't come through until this year.

• West Charlotte High posted another sizable increase in its graduation rate year, moving from 71.1 percent to 78 percent. The school made headlines last year by jumping 15 points in a single year. It's still the lowest graduation rate among high schools with a traditional population, however.

• Fifteen schools had graduation rates above 90 percent, just more than half of the 29 total schools with reported figures.

• Seven schools had graduation rates above 95 percent this year, which is the cut-off point where the state no longer gives a specific figure but instead just reports that the graduation rate was somewhere above that line. Ardrey Kell, Mallard Creek, Northwest School of the Arts, and Providence were repeats from last year. The Military and Global Leadership Academy and the Phillip O. Berry Academy of Technology were new entrants on the list. The Performance Learning Center fell off the list, coming in at 93.2 percent this year.

• Garinger High took the biggest step back this year, falling from 92.2 percent to 87.6 percent. 

Here's a full table I compiled, for your perusal:

School	2013-14	2012-13
Ardrey Kell High	> 95	> 95
Butler High	91.8	93.4
Cato Middle College High	> 95	> 95
East Mecklenburg High	83.5	83.8
Garinger High	87.6	92.2
Harding University High	87.6	87.6
Hawthorne High	90.6	65.9
Hopewell High	87.5	86.5
Independence High	88.6	84.4
Lincoln Heights Academy	66.7	n/a
Mallard Creek High	> 95	> 95
Military and Global Leadership Academy	> 95	92.6
Myers Park High	91.3	85.6
North Mecklenburg High	92.3	88
Northwest School of the Arts	> 95	> 95
Olympic High - Biotech Health Pub Admin	88.5	85
Olympic High - Intl Study, Global Econ	85	76.2
Olympic High - Renaissance School	91.5	83.8
Olympic High -Intl Bus and Comm Studies	82.5	85.5
Olympic High-Math Eng Tech Science	92.8	93
Performance Learning Center	93.2	> 95
Phillip O Berry Academy of Technology	> 95	91.8
Providence High	> 95	> 95
Rocky River High	88.9	92.6
South Mecklenburg High	90.8	88
Vance High	84.2	81.3
West Charlotte High	78	71.1
West Mecklenburg High	85	77.4
William Amos Hough High	92.4	92.2

CMS introduces Grade 13

Four college-based high schools that are expected to get school board approval tonight introduce a concept that's new to Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools:  Grade 13.

Students at middle college schools on three Central Piedmont Community College campuses and an early college high at UNC Charlotte will be able to stick around for a fifth year of high school in order to build up two years worth of tuition-free college credits.  Because that's part of the structure of those schools,  the CMS on-time graduation rate won't take a hit if those students graduate a year later than their peers.

All high school students can take community-college courses for free,  and Cato Middle College High introduced the concept of campus-based high schools to CMS.  That school always promised that successful,  highly motivated juniors and seniors could earn an associate's degree along with their high school diploma,  but the reality was very few found time to accumulate that many college credits.

When the 2014-15 application season opens Jan. 11,  rising 11th and 12th graders with at least a 2.5 GPA will be able to apply for middle college high schools at CPCC's Cato, Levine and Harper campuses.  Rising ninth-graders can sign up to pioneer the district's first early college high school at UNCC's Energy Production and Infrastructure Center.

UNCC EPIC building

CMS is still working on 2014-15 admission requirements for magnets and other choice schools, but the UNCC-EPIC school won't be  "highly selective,"  said Akeshia Craven-Howell,  executive director of CMS' new transformation office  (it incorporates magnets,  career-tech and virtual learning).  The goal is to recruit first-generation college students and female and minority students who have traditionally been underrepresented in high-tech and engineering fields, she said.

Students at all four schools with grade 13 will have the option to graduate at the end of 12th grade,  but Craven-Howell expects most to be motivated to stay for more free college classes.

Some are bound to see the extra year as a CMS bid to game the numbers and boost graduation rates.  I'm as skeptical as the next person,  but I don't think that will be the case.  Cato has consistently logged four-year graduation rates at or near 100 percent,  hardly surprising given that it caters to highly motivated students who are on track to graduate when they're accepted.  These small college-based options aren't likely to become a place where CMS can hide low-performing students while they take an extra year to master basic requirements.

Project LIFT teachers: Absent more than students

Teachers in Project LIFT schools averaged 9.9 absences last year  --  a higher rate than the student average of 9.1 absences.

That was one of the most shocking bits of data in the first-year report on the $55 million five-year project  presented at Tuesday's board meeting.  But you won't find it in the presentation posted online,  and you didn't hear it discussed if you watched the meeting.  Instead,  you might have caught a quick reference to a paper handout distributed to board members.

I got a copy from Denise Watts, the Project LIFT Zone superintendent, after the meeting. It contains the actual data that's available so far to measure the results of the first year.  Many of the items are blank,  to be completed when 2013 test results are released or new parent surveys are completed.

The 71 percent graduation rate at West Charlotte High exceeded the 2013 goal of 66 percent.  This year's target is 78 percent.  And last year's students overwhelmingly topped the goal to earn a total of 100 recovered credits  (essentially makeup courses, often taken online).  They earned 301.

But teacher absences at the nine LIFT schools came in well above the 2012-13 target, which was to average six missed days per teacher.  Apparently based on last year's reality,  the 2013-14 goal has been bumped up to 7.9.  For students,  the goal is to bring the average down to 8.1 days this year.

Another bleak spot:  Students in the nine schools, which include the elementary and middle schools that feed into West Charlotte,  averaged 1.7 out-of-school suspension days per student.  That would equate to 170 per 100 students, using the calculation for  N.C. school report cards. That's similar to the rate reported for West Charlotte High in 2011-12  (176 per 100) and well above the rates reported that year for the  schools with younger students.  This year's goal is to bring the zone average down to one suspension per student.  (That doesn't mean each student gets suspended;  some students earn multiple suspensions and run up the total.)

Urban Institute maps grad-rate trends

UNC Charlotte's Urban Institute recently posted an interactive map that helps people look at graduation-rate trends for N.C. school districts over the last eight years,  since the state started using a four-year tracking method.

Graphic from Urban Institute report

The overall statewide trend has been upward,  though as the report notes,  there have been variations by district.  Wake,  the state's largest district,  has been fairly flat,  while Charlotte-Mecklenburg has caught up.

When it comes to education data,  it seems like there's always a footnote.  CMS changed the number of credits required for graduation,  starting with the class of 2013.  As I reported Monday, it's hard to gauge how much that influenced this year's gain,  which continued an upward trend that preceded the change. About 1,475 seniors availed themselves of the new option to graduate with fewer than 28 credits, but CMS officials note that an unknown number of those likely would have met the higher credit requirement had it been in place.

Lake Woebegon and grad rates

Astute readers looking at the graduation rates for Charlotte-Mecklenburg's 28 high schools may notice something odd:  24 of them list rates above the district average of 81 percent, including 13 above 90 percent.

That may call to mind Garrison Keillor's mythical Lake Woebegon, where all the children are above average.  Worse, it may raise questions about whether the numbers are valid.

In this case,  the seeming impossibility is due to the way school and district rates are calculated.  It's not a CMS thing;  I'm willing to bet you'll find the same pattern in virtually every district.

North Carolina,  like other states,  tracks the students who start high school and calculates the on-time graduation rate by the number who get a diploma four years later  (Superintendent Heath Morrison says our state is unusual in not including summer-school grads).  But students who switch schools after falling behind don't count toward school calculations.

Take,  for instance,  a student who starts ninth grade at School A but doesn't get enough credits to be promoted.  Sometime in his second year of high school he moves to School B.  School A doesn't get blame for his failure to graduate  (or credit if he does)  because he left.  But School B also isn't held responsible because he was behind when he got there.  As long as that student stays within one district,  though,  he still counts toward the district rate.

As you can imagine,  students who fall behind and move around are at special risk for failing to graduate.  So you see those students bringing down the district and state numbers without dragging down schools.

Morrison and his crew are well aware that plenty of people,  including me,  scrutinize CMS numbers closely  --  and with good reason.  The district has gotten black eyes for bad data,  including flawed graduation rates reported in 2006,  when the current tracking system debuted,  and error-filled school progress reports posted last year.  The skepticism started flowing as soon as we posted a story on this year's gains.

John King of Harrisburg quickly emailed me questioning why CMS couldn't quantify the impact of a change in graduation requirements,  from 28 credits in previous years to 24 starting with the Class of 2013.

"Given any level of competent statistical tracking,  it should require very little time or effort to produce dual graduation numbers, one assuming 28 required credits and one assuming 24,"  King wrote.  "I do something similar almost every day in my job!  It’s a key step in evaluating the effectiveness of the decision to make the change.  The failure to do so simply proves that there is more interest in managing the perception than the result and that there is no more transparency under this Superintendent than under the last!"

I requested exactly that calculation Tuesday afternoon,  when I heard that graduation rates would be released Thursday.  I agree with King that it's valuable information,  and I'm disappointed it wasn't available right away.  But Morrison and Chief Accountability Officer Frank Barnes have repeatedly said they're going to check and recheck anything they release,  rather than take another credibility hit by giving out something they have to retract.  They say they'll give me the numbers when they're confident of them,  and I'll report on that information when I get it. 

Do grads pay off for principals?

Superintendent Heath Morrison says he expects "an uptick" in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools' graduation rate for 2013,  though official numbers aren't out yet.  (It was 76.4 percent in 2012;  check details for districts and schools here.)

Comments on this blog have raised the question of whether principals collect bonuses if their graduation rates rise.   The answer:  Only at West Mecklenburg and West Charlotte High,  as part of school improvement grants.  Bonuses based on 2013 graduation rates will be paid in September,  according to spokeswoman Tahira Stalberte.

The CMS bonus system has long been a patchwork of pilots and special projects,  with schools moving in and out of eligibility as one funding source runs out and another grant comes through. The CMS payroll data I got in April showed 1,054 people getting bonuses (out of almost 18,700 employees).  Twenty-four were principals,  including four at high schools:  West Charlotte ($10,000 for John Wall), West Meck  ($5,500 for Eric Ward),  Vance ($2,950 for Melissa Dunlap) and Garinger  ($2,400 for Kondra Rattley,  who was recently promoted to executive director in a zone office).  Even at West Charlotte and West Meck,  that money wasn't necessarily tied to graduation rates.  Wall,  for instance,  was recruited last July through Project LIFT, which paid him a $10,000 signing bonus.

Meanwhile,  the school board has yet to set the standards for Morrison's performance bonus.  His contract allows him to collect up to 10 percent of his $288,000 base pay,  awarded by Oct. 31.  New state exams are complicating efforts to measure his impact on student achievement;  the results won't be released until October  (some speculate it could be later)  and it's far from clear that 2013 scores will be comparable to previous years.  I'm guessing the graduation rate will be one of several measures used to rate the superintendent.

From biscuits to diplomas?

Will Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools'  new free breakfast program produce thousands more graduates?

Well  ...  I'd take that claim with a grain of salt.

Cindy Hobbs,  who heads the CMS child nutrition program,  was ecstatic when the school board OK'ed a plan to provide free breakfast to all students, regardless of family income.  By removing the stigma associated with getting a free meal,  supporters of the plan hope kids will start their school day with a nutritious meal,  eventually improving behavior, attendance and academic performance.

"We could be looking at 3,500 more children to graduate,  based on their 20 percent graduation rate,"  she told the board just before the 7-1 vote.

When I asked about that number,  she acknowledged it's more of a hope than a solid projection,  and one that would take many years to play out.

The CMS presentation used numbers drawn from  "Ending Childhood Hunger: A Social Impact Analysis," done by Deloitte for the advocacy group No Kid Hungry.  It's the kind of study designed to make a case,  with clear language, nice visuals and strong conclusions. It cites findings that students who participate in school breakfast programs attend 1.5 more days of school a year, score 17.5 percent higher on math tests and have fewer behavior problems.  The 20 percent figure comes from a different study,  which found that students who miss fewer than five days of school a year  --  not necessarily those who eat breakfast  --  are 20 percent more likely to graduate.  Based on that,  Deloitte extrapolated that the Maryland program they were reviewing might  "see up to 56,000 additional students achieving math proficiency and 14,000 more high school graduates over time."

Hobbs said she used that same approach to extrapolate a CMS increase in graduates over an unspecified period of time.

The source cited in the Deloitte footnote is a 36-page academic research review on breakfast studies done since the 1990s.  It's harder to get through than a big bowl of unsalted grits.  I did my best,  and found several studies showing that students performed better on some tests,  logged better attendance and appeared to be better behaved when they had breakfast.  But,  as tends to be the case with real academic research,  it's chock full of qualifiers,  along the lines of  "not statistically significant"  and  "another data source produced contradictory results."

There's no mention of any study linking breakfast to graduation rates.

Common sense tells us that sausage biscuits aren't the golden ticket to education reform.  It brings me back to a notion I've written about before,  that real change comes from 100 one-percent solutions, not one or two big reforms.  It would be lunacy to offer free breakfasts and figure the work is done,  but CMS leaders are hoping it's one small piece of a program to help more kids succeed.

While we're on the biscuit beat,  did anyone else cringe at the notion that kids are getting "turkey sausage on a whole-grain biscuit"?  Hobbs told the board that school cafeterias avoid pork because many families have religious prohibitions.

I happen to like turkey sausage.  But a whole-grain biscuit?  Is that even a real thing?

Real biscuits?

Hobbs laughed when I asked.  "They're  ...  OK," she said tactfully.  As a Southerner, she said, she wouldn't serve or eat them,  but the U.S. Department of Agriculture requires certain portions of whole grains in school meals.

Dropouts vs. grad rate: More confusion

The recent state report on 2010-11 dropout rates may have added to confusion over how many Charlotte-Mecklenburg students are staying in school.  As one person who emailed me noted,  the CMS dropout rate of 3.57 percent seems way out of whack with a 2011 graduation rate of 73.5 percent.

It's not as crazy as it sounds.  The annual dropout rate tallied the percent of all high school students who left school in 2010-11.  The on-time graduation rate is the percent of students who started ninth grade in 2007-08 and graduated four years later.  During those four years,  CMS' cumulative dropout rate was 18.6 percent  (the rate has been dropping every year).

That's still short of the 26.5 percent who failed to graduate in four years.  Some of those no doubt came back this year,   neither dropouts or on-time grads.  In 2010-11,  454 CMS students who should have graduated with the Class of 2010 got their diplomas,  bumping up the total graduation rate for that class by 4.6 percentage points.

I can't swear that there are no mistakes in CMS' drop-out or on-time graduation rates,  but there has been no indication that either is faulty.  The error that created a stir and led to the resignation of a data administrator had to do with a completely separate measure created by CMS,  which tallied the percent of students who had never been retained and used that as a gauge of being on track to graduate.

Cute kids and graduates

It was a treat to be greeted by a crowd of smiling fourth- and fifth-graders at Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools' news conference on ABC results, held at Thomasboro Elementary. Sometimes we need a reminder that behind all these data dumps are real kids who deserve a bright future. These particular young folks were wrapping up a summer leadership program, designed to help the high-poverty westside school build a better climate for learning and make sure students don't lose academic ground during the summer.

Having said that, there's still more interesting data online as part of the ABC/No Child Left Behind release. I'm especially interested in the graduation rates, which proved something of a shock for CMS in 2009. The Observer will be circling back to that topic in the near future, but the numbers provide some interesting insights.

The main measure is the four-year graduation rate, tallying what percent of the class that enters high school graduates on time four years later. CMS had 9,760 first-time freshmen in 2005-06, with 6,450 of them graduating in 2009, a 66 percent on-time graduation rate.

The state also tracks students who graduate within five years. The new report shows that by 2010, another 385 of those CMS students -- and more than 3,300 students statewide -- had earned a diploma. That pushed CMS's five-year rate to 70 percent, still below the state's five-year average of 75 percent.

This year 70 percent of CMS students and 74 percent of N.C. students got their diplomas in four years. CMS saw gains in grad rates for all groups, but especially significant ones for black and low-income students, who are at special risk for dropping out. However, the Hispanic graduation rate sagged in CMS, and the district remains below state averages for the at-risk groups.

Eighty-five percent of CMS's white students graduated on time in 2010, above the state average of 80 percent for white students and CMS's 2009 rate of 81 percent.

Since Wake/CMS comparisons seem to be the hot topic (look for more on that in the near future, too), I'll note that Wake's overall 2010 four-year rate of 78 percent tops CMS, as do Wake's graduation rates for black and white students. For Hispanic and low-income teens the two megadistricts are tied and below the state average.

Get details on graduation rates for all N.C. schools and districts here.