Brace yourself for new test scores

There's a wild week ahead for supporters of Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, with a bond vote, school board election and release of state test scores coming.

We'll get election results Tuesday night. My guess is that backers of the education bonds for CMS and Central Piedmont Community College will be celebrating.  I went to the North Regional Library in Huntersville Tuesday to talk to early voters,  then got pulled off for another story before I could flesh out a full report.  But that small sample was consistent:  The people I talked to knew little or nothing about the bonds going in,  but voted yes because they support education.

"I always support anything to do with the schools,"  said Tara McAlinn of Huntersville,  the mother of a 4-year-old.  It's a sentiment I heard repeatedly,  from young parents to retirees.

However the election goes,  Thursday morning will dash a bucket of cold water in people's faces when the N.C. Department of Public Instruction releases long-awaited results from 2013 end-of-grade exams.  State officials have made it clear that there's going to be a big drop in proficiency rates  --  not because kids got dumber or teachers got less effective,  but because there are more rigorous new tests, new  "cut scores"  for passing and no second try for students who fell below grade level.  Many schools will see hard-earned gains disappear.  If past changes in testing are any predictor,  gaps between the highest- and lowest-performing groups of students will widen.  (One interesting feature:  For the first time,  the state will break out performance for academically gifted kids.)

CMS Superintendent Heath Morrison said this week that he supports tougher tests that are designed to more accurately reflect students' readiness for college and careers.  "Every time we set the bar higher,  our kids respond, our teachers respond."  But he worries that critics who tout the failure of public education will use the new results to say  "See,  I told you it was broken."

There are actually three phases of the test-score release.  Teachers have already started getting  "value-added"  ratings based on the new exams,  which is bound to be a source of some stress.  "You get this information and it's really confusing,"  said one caller,  who had just gotten her report and declined to give her name.  "It's hard to read and it's hard to understand."

Proficiency and growth for schools and districts come out Thursday.  And within 30 days of that,  families are supposed to get reports on how their own children did last year.

If you want to get prepared for the testing data,  DPI has a background brief posted.

If you want to prepare for Tuesday's election,  you can find details about the bonds and the candidates on the Observer's voter guide.

And if you've still got energy left at the end of that crazy week, you can turn your gaze to the future at a Nov. 9 forum on "What's next for public education in Charlotte metro?"  From 10 a.m. to noon at UNC Charlotte Center City,  panelists from CMS,  charter schools,  the state legislature and higher education will talk about choices,  challenges,  changes and coordination.  The session is sponsored by Staying Ahead Carolina and UNCC.  There's no charge,  but registration is required.

Today Show and CMS spin

Devonshire Elementary got a nice moment of national recognition on the Today Show this morning, but it's too bad NBC education correspondent Rehema Ellis didn't double-check her numbers.

Ellis

I suspected that might be an issue when Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools  emailed an announcement Wednesday saying the east Charlotte school would be featured as a success story in a series on poverty, race and education. That wasn't a shock;  from what I know,  Principal Suzanne Gimenez and her crew have worked hard to make some genuine academic gains over the last five years.

But the numbers in the CMS announcement were incredible. Literally.

"Since a turnaround effort began five years ago,  achievement at Devonshire,  which has more than 95 percent of students who are economically disadvantaged,  has soared.  In 2008,  only 68.4 percent of students were at or above Level III,"  wrote CMS spokeswoman Tahira Stalberte,  referring to the state exam rating that's considered passing.  "Today,  94.8 percent of students are at or above Level III."

If that were true,  I'd have done a front-page story,  as I did with Windsor Park Elementary,  which topped CMS'  high-poverty schools with a 2012 pass rate of 82 percent.  But the state's school report cards show that Devonshire had pass rates of 54.9 percent in reading,  90.5 percent in math and 64.4 percent in fifth-grade science,  for an overall composite of 71.4 percent.

When I asked Stalberte about that,  she sent out a correction:  "The numbers (listed) are the proficiency composites for fifth-grade math,  not the overall proficiency at Devonshire Elementary."

In 2008,  Devonshire's overall proficiency rate was 42.9 percent.  But as I recently told a group of Davidson College students embarking on summer internships with local education groups,  any report that touts big gains since 2008 should set BS detectors pinging.  That's because North Carolina students had one chance to pass or fail the exams in 2008;  starting the next year,  first-time flunkers got a second shot. The result of the rule change was not trivial,  especially at struggling schools.  In 2009,  Devonshire's overall pass rate was 55.1 percent after the first test and 64.2 percent after the retests,  according to CMS reports at the time.

This morning's report featured good interviews with Devonshire faculty and families. Especially touching was a segment in which a student got teary at hearing his father say he's proud of his academic success.

But the numbers?  "The school went from 40 percent to 93 percent of the students performing at grade level," Ellis reported, introducing a whole new set of numbers that don't seem to connect with reality.

CMS leaders and advocates often bemoan the gap between the district's glowing national reputation and local perceptions.  No doubt that's partly because local critics and,  yes,  reporters sometimes latch onto the negatives.  But it's also partly because national reporters,  researchers and advocacy groups sometimes promote an oversimplified view of CMS.  They may not be aware of the testing change that made all sorts of reforms look successful  --  and the new administration has shown no inclination to distance itself from the  "big gains since 2008"  game.

Educators,  students and parents who are working to break the links between poverty and failure deserve our respect and attention.  But no one should fudge numbers to give it to them.

"That's a phenomenal change in that school,"  Matt Lauer said at the end of the segment.  You might even say it's incredible.